Guide · updated October 12, 2026

Pathways carbon capture project: the 2026 MOU, timeline and what it means for contractors

The Pathways oil sands carbon capture and storage project: what the July 2, 2026 Canada–Alberta–Oil Sands Alliance MOU commits to, the 2032 and 2035 in-service targets, and the November 15, 2026 deadline for binding agreements.

On July 2, 2026, Canada, Alberta and the five Oil Sands Alliance companies signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding. The five are Canadian Natural, Cenovus, ConocoPhillips Canada, Imperial and Suncor. Under it, the Pathways Project would cut about 6 Mtpa (net) of CO2. It combines capture plants at each company’s sites with shared CO2 pipelines, compression and a storage hub. The shared infrastructure would be in service on or before January 1, 2032, and the whole project complete by January 1, 2035. Binding definitive agreements are targeted for signing on or before November 15, 2026, and every commitment depends on them (full MOU text).

The MOU also commits the companies to use commercially reasonable efforts to prioritize Canadian suppliers, including Canadian steel and aluminum. Canada and Alberta commit to extending carbon-capture tax credits and the Alberta incentive program to 2035. Canadian Natural says its own growth projects stay on hold until the agreements are final. November 2026 is the date to watch for oil sands contractors.

In this guide

1. Alliance Heartland Expansion and Pathways CCS
2. Shell Polaris CCS and Atlas hub
3. Air Products net-zero hydrogen complex
4. Canadian Natural growth projects (on hold)
5. Suncor Base Mine Extension (proposed)

Alliance Heartland Expansion and Pathways CCS

Alberta · Gas pipeline + CCS · Heartland

Alliance Heartland Expansion reaches the CER; Pathways still has no FID.

• Status: —
• Next: Alliance construction Apr 2028–Sep 2030 (CER page)
• Disclosed cost: Alliance not disclosed; Pathways phase 1 C$20–30B (reported)
• In service: Alliance Sep 2030

Sources:

• CER project page
• Pembina, Jul 2
• Alberta.ca

Shell Polaris CCS and Atlas hub

Alberta · Carbon capture · Scotford, Strathcona County

Shell's second Scotford carbon-capture plant, capturing 650,000 t a year, builds toward 2028.

• Status: Under construction (Alberta Major Projects); Shell projected a peak of about 400 workers in Q4 2025–Q1 2026
• Next: Operations toward the end of 2028
• Disclosed cost: Not publicly disclosed
• Owner: Shell Canada (Polaris 100%); Atlas hub 50/50 with ATCO EnPower
• In service: Toward end of 2028

Sources:

• Shell FID release, June 26, 2024
• Alberta Major Projects
• Shell Scotford community presentation

Air Products net-zero hydrogen complex

Alberta · Hydrogen · Edmonton (Industrial Heartland)

A C$4.6B hydrogen and liquefaction complex with carbon capture, due 2027.

• Status: Under construction (Alberta Major Projects)
• Next: Completion 2027 (provincial schedule)
• Disclosed cost: C$4.6B (Alberta Major Projects)
• Owner: Air Products
• In service: 2027

Sources:

• Alberta Major Projects
• Air Products project page

Canadian Natural growth projects (on hold)

Alberta · Oil sands · Athabasca region

Pike 2, Jackfish and a new Jackpine mine wait on federal–Alberta agreements due November 2026.

• Status: On hold until definitive Oil Sands Alliance–Alberta–federal agreements are finalized
• Next: Agreements targeted November 2026
• Disclosed cost: Not publicly disclosed
• Owner: Canadian Natural Resources

Sources:

• Canadian Natural Q2 2026 results (Aug 6, 2026)
• Canada–Alberta–Oil Sands Alliance MOU (Jul 2, 2026)

Suncor Base Mine Extension (proposed)

Alberta · Oil sands · North of Fort McMurray

A proposed 225,000 bbl/d mine to replace Base Plant supply.

• Status: Early development; project descriptions filed with the AER and Impact Assessment Agency
• Next: Impact assessment; Suncor choosing among supply options
• Disclosed cost: Not publicly disclosed
• Owner: Suncor Energy

Sources:

• Suncor, Base Mine Extension

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